RandomThoughts

FBB 2012: Sliver of Hope

Well, just when I was considering throwing my team into the trash, they start hitting.  I’m moved up three spots in the standings and seem to be steadily on the rise, but I’m only in 6th place.  I see moving up to as high as third, but maybe not much more.

Teixeira, Viceido, and Ramirez have been warming up considerably.  Viciedo has been on fire.

Positive Pick-Up
My recent pick-up of Red Sox prospect has been a very positive one as he came-up hitting and has kept doing it.  He’s doing so well that the Red Sox have considering trading Youkliss to keep Middlebrooks in the line-up.

Pitching Picking-Up
Haren has seemed to have gotten on the right track.  Recently acquired starter, Felipe Paulino, has been very good and Jason Hammel has been solid.

Max Scherzer keeps getting me Ks but he’s been somewhat inconsistent.   

I finally dumped Francisco Liriano when the Twins moved him to the bullpen.

No Closers
With Santos out and Santiago losing his job, I currently have no full time closers.  I did pick-up Scott Downs, but Freiri has been nothing short of spectacular for the Angels and Downs may not be getting many chances.  

The Mariners dropped Brandon League from the closer’s role and I’ve picked up the logical next-in-line for saves guy, Tom Wilhelmsen, but he’s had no chances to save a game since the Mariners suck.

FBB 2012: Lost Season?

It seems that no matter how many moves I make my team does not improve as I hover in 9th place.  I’m beginning to think this might be a lost season.  

Recent Moves
I picked up Scott Downs to hopefully get some saves.

I picked up Felipe Paulino.  He’s pitched well as of lately and has a decent K potentional.

I finally dumped Francisco Liriano and re-acquired Matt Thornton because the White Sox are now a close by committee.

The Reason for My Downfall
Lack of hitting.  I’m last in the league in BA.  Despite having guys who get ABs, I’m not getting much production.  Yesterday, I led the league in ABs, but I only had 1 RBI and no HRs or SBs with a BA of .154.

PFNY?
It’s awfully early to start considering playing for next year, but I could be in that position.  The question is — who do I trade?  Any of my players that could be attractive trade bait are not producing.

This will have to be something I consider in the weeks to come.  Sigh.

FBB 2012: Death Spiral

It just keeps getting worse.  

There was always a chance that my team’s performance was just a bad luck as they collectively were off to a slow start, but now I’m not so sure.  By all analysts projections, my team shouldn’t be this bad.  Initially, I thought it was just my pitching, but with some transactions, I’ve seen a slight turnaround in the pitching numbers.  So, it’s my hitting that is also sucking.

Evidence
Witness my team’s hitting numbers from last night:
49 ABs, .143 average 1 HR, 0 SB

I led my league in ABs last night.   I have guys that are getting playing time, but they just aren’t hitting.

Ben Zobrist is a poster child for how bad my team is hitting with a .180 batting average.

More Bad News
Both Matt Thornton and Hector Santiago have pitched themselves out of the closer’s job in Chicago.  (And I felt like a genius when I picked up Santiago…and I was, but he just wasn’t a genius at pitching.)

Delmon Young decided to get drunk and arrested all the while he was through out hateful epitaphs against Jews.  So, he gets suspended.  

Coco Crisp has been sick most of the early season and now is on he DL with an ear infection.  Great.

J.J. Hardy still isn’t hitting.  Neither is Ben Zobrist.

Personnel Changes
I’m trying to make course corrections but I fear that the wide middle of my team is going to continue to suck.

I finally gave up on Justin Smoak who was hitting .183.  I picked up Will Middlebrooks for $9 as an FAAB claim.  Middlebrooks won’t really save me as he will certainly be demoted when Youkliss returns, but I had to do something.

I picked up Jake Arrieta (after dropping him a week earlier).  He’s trending better and is a ground ball pitcher.  If he continues trending this way, he could be a good $1 pick-up.

I dropped Thornton and decided to take a chance on Dylan Axelrod as he is being moved into the starting rotation in Chicago.  Who knows what will happen there?  Taking a chance on a $1 starting is better than having a $1 set-up man, I guess.

Thin Hope
A couple of my players are starting to trend in a positive direction (Hammel, Arrieta, Teixiera, & Viciedo).  If Downs can hold onto the closers job and Santos returns and keeps the closer’s job in Toronto, there’s a slim hope my team can be competitive.

FBB 2012: The Good, the Bad, the Ugly

There’s not a lot of a good, some bad, and a whole lot of ugly.  After nearly a month of competition and my team is mired in 9th place with not a whole lot of hope for making a run.  The worst disappointment has been my starting pitching.   I have the worst WHIP and worst ERA in the league, but it’s also my hitting that is sinking my team as I really only have two players over-performing.

First, The Good
Edwin Encarnacion - .322, 8 HRs. 21 RBI, 4 SBs
Denard Span - .330, 3SBs

That’s the good on my hitting.  Pitching wise, here’s my good:
Dan Haren - after a bad start, he seems to have righted his ship and has pitched well
Ricky Romero - good start after good start; 3 Wins, 3.44 ERA

The Bad
Mark Teixiera - .244, 3 HRs, 9 RBI; had a glimmer of hope, the went south again
Sergio Santos - looked shaky, then went on the DL
Alejandro De Aza - .247, 3 HRs, 7 RBI, 2 SB 
Delmon Young - .242, 1 HR, 5 RBI; suspended for assault & hate crimes 

The Ugly
This list is long and very ugly:Eric Hosmer - .188, 5 HRs, 13 RBI, 1 SB
Ben Zobrist - .205, 3 HRs, 11 RBI, 1 SB
Alexei Ramirez - .207, 1 HRs, 6 RBI, 1 SB
JJ Hardy - .184, 3 HRs, 6 SBs
Coco Crisp - .206, 2 SBs
Dayan Viciedo - .206, 3 HRs, 4 RBI
Justin Smoak - .200, 3 HR, 9 RBI

Max Scherzer - 7.77 ERA, 2.05 WHIP; 27 Ks, 
Francisco Liriano - 11.02 ERA, 2.32 WHIP; Horrible, terrible, awful
Brian Matusz - 8.38 ERA, 2.71 WHIP; Waived (with extreme prejudice)

Slivers of Hope
I picked up both Hector Santiago and Scott Downs.  Santiago was named the closer at the first of the season, looked good, then not so good.  His story is still out.  Downs took over closing duties from Jorden Walden and has locked down 2 quick saves.  Maybe he will keep the job.

I also picked up Jason Hammel who started strong and has had two very good starts for me.

Haren, after initially sucking, has gotten better.  If Santiago falters, it looks like Matt Thornton could be the next in line.  

Teixiera has shown signs of coming alive.  Coco Crisp, after looking bad, has started to hit.

Bottom Line
I have too many hitters dramatically under-performing.  I could make a couple pick-ups but unless the rest of the hitter start performing, my season is over before it started.  
 

FBB 2012: Re-Shaping My Pitching Staff

Early pick-up
All through spring training, the White Sox closer was in question.  I had picked up both Thornton and Sale thinking they were the top candidates.  Sale was transitioned into a starter and Thornton looked like the front runner.  Addison Reed was the favorite of many of the analysts, but Robin Ventura and Dan Cooper had a real surprise for the baseball world and if you watch carefully, you could see what they were thinking.  And I was watching closely.

About two games into the season, the White Sox were down going into the 7th.  Reed pitched the 7th and they brought out Thornton to pitch the 8th.  You don’t bring your closer out to pitch the 8th inning if your team is behind.  

Another clue was that Dan Cooper (the White Sox’s pitching coach) had said they were protecting one of their relievers at the end of the season.  That pitcher was Hector Santiago.  Santiago was, at best, a middle of the road reliever, but he decided to learn how to pitch a screwball which almost no one did anymore.  Well, he mastered it and it has turned out to be a devastating pitch.  So much so that it won him the closer’s job.  I swept in and took Santiago before he threw a pitch this season and he ran off three quick saves.  He had one bad outing after those saves and he could go south, but if he corrects and continues his success, I have a $1 closer.

Replacing Bad With Mediocre
As you saw with my previous post, I’m somewhat disenchanted with Francisco Liriano’s performance.  I’m also disappointed with Brian Matusz.  Both of them had stellar springs and have sucked in a spectacular way once the season started.  

The picking are slim in terms of replacing them, but at this point, I’m not sure I could do much worse.  I dumped Mastusz and replaced him with his fellow Orioles started Jason Hammel who has a had a very good start.  I also picked up Jake Arrieta who is pitching well (dropping Glenn Perkins who was having some arm issues).  

Almost none of the analyst think all the much of Arrieta or Hammel, but starting staff was so bad, I had to do something.  

Liriano’s Short Rope
Liriano has one more start (maybe two) to get better but if he continues on this path, I’m dumping him. 

FBB 2012: Why I Hate Francisco Liriano

Francisco Liriano has been a wildly inconsistent pitcher the past few seasons, battling through injuries and control problems, but he had probably the best spring stats of any pitcher with an ERA of 2.33, 33 Ks and 5 walks.  

Now, people like myself thought that maybe this was going to be his up season and he would finally put all together.  I don’t think I could have been any more wrong.  He has been devastatingly bad. 

In three starts, his stats are:
11.1 IP,  22 Hits, 15 ER,  9 BBs, 9 Ks, and an ERA of 11.91 with a WHIP of 2.73

He, along with bad starts from Dan Haren and Max Scherzer, have me with the worst ERA and WHIP in the league and have me in last place.

I won’t talk about my disappointments with my hitting in this post but there have been some real bad numbers coming from there, too.

FBB 2012: Ugly First Week Pitching Stats

FBB 2012: Post Draft Analysis

After getting a few days of reflection, here is my final post draft analysis of the draft and my team:

Strategy Going-in
Overarching - Go for targets, getting speed power guys and get one good 4th starter.

• Get a big gun; Teixiera since he won’t demand as big a salary as Fielder or Pujols.  If not him, then Fielder
• Target Alex Rios in the 2nd round for a bounce-back, five-tool season  Him or Cespedes.  Long shot target - A-Rod.
• Get a good fourth starter - Francisco Liriano or Chris Sale
• Find a run producing 3rd or 4th outfielder (Target - Delmon Young)
• Look for a 3rd marginal closer
• Find some speed because I need it
• Go for $1 catchers

How It Turned Out
Instead of sticking to my targets, I had to switch to a go-with-the-flow approach as Teixiera went for the top end of my range ($34) and that left with me a money issue for the 2nd and 3rd rounds. So, I lost out on Rios and then Sale in the 2nd and 3rd rounds.

My OF is a little weaker than I would have liked and I think I’m lacking steals.  I also think going with 4 relievers may hurt me.

Targets Lost

• Alex Rios
• Yeonis Cespedes
• Chris Sale
• Grant Balfour
• Vernon Wells (Vernon)
• Ryan Lavarnway
• Justin Morneau
• Kendry Morales
• Tommy Milone
• Colin Cowgill 
• Ryan Doumit
• Henderson Alvarez
• Adam Dunn
• Danny Valencia

My Best Buy
It could be Francisco Liriano ($11) if he delivers on his spring training numbers and stays healthy.  Also, Delmon Young ($17) and J.J. Hardy ($19).

My Best Bargain
Probably Liriano, but as for cheapies, maybe Justin Smoak or Brian Matusz.

Best Bargains in the Draft
Vernon Wells $5 - CUCH
Ervin Santana $9 - CUCH
Phil Hughes $4 - ARRO
Bartolo Colon $1 - CULT
Jason Bourgeois $2 - BARF
Wilson Betemit $1 - SYLV

Who I Might Regret
Either of my two set-up men, Perkins & De Los Santos, if they don’t move into the closers role at some point.  Liriano if he fails or gets injured.  Lastly, J.J. Hardy if his shoulder keeps him out of the lineup.

What Would I Do Differently
Not a lot.  I had to make the initial investment in Teixiera and that left me low on dollars for two rounds, but I feel that I got value in the following rounds.  I would love to have a $9 Ervin Santana as my 5th starter. 

Keys to Victory

• Liriano, Scherzer and Matusz all deliver on their spring promise
• Delmon Young hits like he did in 2010 and at the end of the last season
• Edwin Encarnacion breaks out like some analysts predict
• Hosmer develops like Joey Votto
• Coco Crisp stays healthy and doesn’t get traded
• Alexandro De Aza becomes a solid lead-off man and steals 35 bases
• One of my longshot closers takes the closing job on

Road to Defeat

• Liriano gets off track or his shoulder goes bloey
• Scherzer doesn’t step his game and regresses
• Hardy’s shoulder becomes a real issue
• Santos is a one-hit wonder and loses his closer’s job
• Thornton fails - again
• Teixiera does an Adam Dunn

Most Likely Scenario

• One or two my position players breaks out (Encarnacion or Young)
• One regresses (Hardy or Ramirez)
• 3 out of 5 of my starters delivers and exceeds expectations
• 1 fails or gets hurt
• Thornton does well, but is either traded or supplanted for a youth movement
• My catchers are a mediocre as their draft position 
• I’ll run away with Ks but fall short in wins
• I’ll be in the middle of the pack with steals

Ultimate Prediction
I’ll finish in the top three (if I don’t have to do another re-building trade dump mid-season when my team falls apart.)

FBB 2012: My Out of the Draft Team

The draft was a little different than I expected.  A had to let go a lot of my targets because they went to high for my taste.  After taking Teixeira in the first round I didn’t have a lot of money to throw around if I wanted to maintain my starting rotation.  

In my initial analysis, I think I have a solid infield, a somewhat weak outfield and great starting rotation and a fairly solid relief core.

My $1 Catchers
There was not a lot of talent available at catcher after the freeze lists were posted so I decided to go bottom dollar on my catchers.

C Miguel Olivo $1 - I had him on my toppers list and expected to go $4-$5 for him so I was surprised I got him in the speed rounds for a buck.
C Tyler Flowers $1 - I got him as my last position player pick.  I really wanted Jose Molina, but he got picked ahead of me.

Their not bad guys and should get me a respectable number of HRs, but will hurt me in BA

My Costly Infield
1B Eric Hosmer $8 (freeze) - The analysts love this guy and, for the price, I do too, but I fear his HRs will not top 30 in KC.  He looks like he will bring everything else though.
2B Ben Zobrist $13 (freeze) - Zobrist is a B+ five category player and I hope he turns out to be worth trading Kyle Farnsworth for.
SS Alexei Ramirez $22 (freeze) -  I now wished I had topped him because I think I could have gotten him cheaper but he has respectable numbers.  
3B Edwin Encarnacion $12 (freeze) - this was a guy who cost me Adam Lind and Kyle Seager, but third base talent was very, very thin and this could be the year that Encarnacion breaks out.  At least, I hope he does and a few analysts think he could.
CI Mark Teixiera $34 - this was my big buy.  I wrestled with passing up on him and going for A-Rod instead, but A-Rods flagging health was too big of a risk for me.  I really would have liked to have gotten Tex for $29, but he got driven up and I knew I had to pay the price even though it crippled me for 2 rounds.
MI J.J. Hardy $19 - my surprise of the draft.  I hadn’t targeted him at all, but he was available in the 6th round so I threw him out wanting to drain the owner with topper rights, but he let him go.  So, I’m hoping he gives me the production I need for my $19.  My only concern for him right now is that he has a shoulder issue.

DH Justin Smoak $3 - This was my first pick in the speed rounds.  He was the best available talent at the time so I picked him.  He hasn’t really delivered on the promise but maybe he can be a Mark Grace-like player for me.

My Fast but Cheap Outfield
Delmon Young $17 - Delmon don’t get no respect.  He was one my peripheral targets.  He’s in a great line-up, has a .288 career BA and is 27 years old.  If I can get the season he delivered on in 2010 I will be ecstatic.  
Denard Span $14 - this wasn’t my first pick, but I got outbid on Alex Rios and B.J. Upton so I had to go for Span for steals.   I hope he delivers.
Coco Crisp $20 (freeze) - My two biggest concerns for Coco are health and that fact that he could be traded.
Alexandro De Aza $5 (freeze)  - I hoping for 30 steals and not a lot more but that will make me happy.
Dayan Viciedo $5 (freeze) - his springs has me doubting but many analysts think he will deliver. 

My Solid Starting Rotation
Dan Haren $23 (freeze) - he cost me, but has been very consistent and underrated
Rickey Romero $13 (freeze) - he’s having a great spring and looked good last season.
Max Scherzer $17 - I have coveted Max for two seasons since trading him away.  He’s a guy could be a great breakout candidate.  I feared I’d lose him in the draft, but I got him for cheaper than I would have had I frozen him.
Francisco Liriano $11 - my big risk.  He sucked last season, but is having a fantastic spring and I’m hoping he has a bounce back year. 
Brian Matusz $2 - I usually steer clear of Oriole pitchers, but he had a great spring with a fantastic K to BB ratio so I decided to give him a chance.

My Risky Relief Core
Sergio Santos $5 (freeze) - this converted infielder shows great stuff, but is a risk. He only has one season closing under his belt but is having a good spring so I’m hoping he delivers the goods.
Matt Thornton $13 (freeze) - this is my biggest risk.  Nearly everyone thinks he will lose his job to Addison Reed and he could, but I think that he will get a chance this year from Ventura.   Then he could get traded if the ChiSox are out of the running in July.
Glenn Perkins $1 - I don’t have a lot of confidence in Capps and I think Perkins could take the closer’s role if Capps falters.
F. De Los Santos $1 - This is another risk player - a low risk, though.  If he can get control and lower his walks, he could become a player for Oakland - like maybe take over the closer’s role.  It’s a bit of a reach though and maybe I should have picked up another starter instead.

All-in-all, I feel good about my team, but my OF is sort of weak and I’m lacking speed.  We shall see.  More later.

FBB 2012: Freeze/Tops List

Below is my Freeze/Toppers List (analysis to follow)

FREEZE 
Hosmer, E 1B KC $8 
Zobrist, B 2B TB $13 
Ramirez, A SS CHW $22 
Encarnacion, E 3B TOR $12 
Crisp, C OF OAK $20 
De Aza, A OF CHW $5 
Viciedo, D OF CHW $5 
Haren, D P LAA $23 
Romero, R P TOR $13 
Santos, S P TOR $5 
Thornton, M P CHW $13 
11/$139 

TOPPERS 
Scherzer, M P DET 
Danks, J P CHW 
Casilla, A MI MIN 
Olivo, M C SEA 
Betemit, W CI BAL 

This is solid freeze list.  I have a solid but unspectacular infield but am a little thin in the OF.  I like my core starting rotation as long as I get Scherzer back.

I fretted like crazy over freezing and not topping Alexei Ramirez.  At $22, he’s a little over valued but I felt that SS was going to be thin.  If I had taken a moment to review the freeze lists, I would have maybe moved him from Freeze to Topper.  In the end, I would have probably had to pay around $18 to get him back anyway.

From my current perspective I see my team revolving around these four players

My first round pick - this will be a batting juggernaut

Matt Thornton - if he can grab the closer’s job and hold it all season, I’m good

Max Scherzer - if I can get him back at a reasonable price and he makes the next step, I’m in good shape

Dayan Viciedo - if he can live up to or exceed his potential, then he could help out a lot.

Pre-Draft Thoughts
Going into the draft, I see my team needs and know I need someone with some power and a few more steals.  I also need a decent fourth starter.